Deliverable 8.5 The short, medium and long term perspectives of various dedicated market segments for ‘green gases’

Is it likely that a breakthrough towards a huge majority part of the EU gases uptake being green will be achieved towards 2050, when greening would need to be nearly completed. This report shows that this will be a formidable challenge that will need to be aggressively pursued by industry and policymakers working together starting as soon as possible, and will need to cover all major three technologies towards producing carbon-neutral gases: gases from biomass; natural gas ‘cleaned’ via CCS or CCU; or renewable gases from electrolysis and methanation with the help of green power. The fourth alternative, greening natural gas with the help of certificates, is considered to remain part of marketing the greening of gas in actual practice, but not as a fundamental source of green gas supply. The detailed country analyses included in this study adds a more disaggregated, context-specific, bottom-up perspective. The bottom-up analysis suggests that many top-down perspectives, could considerably overestimate the realistic speed of electrification, phase out of fossils, implementation of energy saving measures, and thereby underestimate future (renewable) gas demand.

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